PREDICTING RESULTS OF TRAINING AND MANAGEMENT ACTIONS
As adaptive ecosystem management takes hold within DoD (Goodman 1996, Leslie et al. 1996) and other agencies (Beattie 1996, Dombeck 1996, Thomas 1996), the ability to predict the impact of training activities and the results of management actions becomes increasingly important. Some activities may have direct effects such as mortality, but more often, the effects (both positive and negative) relate to changes in habitat.
Ecological models can be used to predict results at three levels. Vegetation dynamics models predict short- and long-term changes in plant life forms as a result of various activities. Habitat models identify changes in habitat as a result of vegetation changes or changes in other habitat parameters. Population and metapopulation models evaluate demographic changes that result from habitat or landscape changes.
As part of our SERDP program, we have developed habitat models for cerulean warbler (Dendroica cerulea), Henslow's sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii), and limestone glades and barrens (Dale et al. in press, Hargrove et al. submitted, Mann et al. in prep.). A population model for territorial migrant birds has also been developed and implemented for cerulean warbler and Henslow's sparrow (King et al. submitted). We are currently developing metapopulation models for red-cockaded woodpecker and Karner blue butterfly.
Beattie, M. 1996. An ecosystem approach to fish and wildlife conservation. Ecological Applications 6(3):696-698.
Dale, V. H., A. W. King, L. K. Mann, R. A. Washington-Allen, and R. A. McCord. Assessing land-use impacts on natural resources. Environ. Manage. (In press)
Dombeck, M. P. 1996. Thinking like a mountain: BLM's approach to ecosystem management.Ecological Applications 6(3):699-702.
Goodman, S. W. 1996. Ecosystem management at the Department of Defense.Ecological Applications 6(3):706-707.
Hargrove, W. W., T. L. Ashwood, L. K. Mann, and A. W. King. Deductive and inductive mapping of potential rare species habitat on military lands using a geographic information system. (Submitted)
King, A. W., L. K. Mann, W. W. Hargrove, T. L. Ashwood, and V. H. Dale. Assessing the persistence of an avian population in a managed landscape: A case study with Henslow's sparrow at Fort Knox, Kentucky. (Submitted)
Leslie, M., G. K. Jaffe, J. L. Hardesty, and D. L. Adams. 1996. Conserving biodiversity on military lands: A handbook for natural resources managers. HQ USAF/CEVP, Directorate of Environment, Office of the Air Force Pentagon, Washington, D.C.
Thomas, J. W. 1996. Forest Service perspective on ecosystem management.Ecological Applications 6(3):703-705.
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