This is a brief description of studies that exemplify the methods and approaches that have been developed and used by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) researchers in conducting integrated assessments. See the complete list of Integrated Assessment Briefs to find out more about ORNL's efforts in integrated assessment. Contact Mike Farrell ( for more information.

Democratization and World Petroleum Trade

World petroleum trade patterns are shown through the export and import figures above. Units are in million barrels per day.

Will there be any changes to the world petroleum trade patterns in the year 2000 as a result of the democratization in the Former Soviet Union (FSU) and Eastern Europe (EE)?

The Middle East will continue to be the dominant supplier in the world oil market. A significant portion of FSU exports will come to North America, and EE will import 50% of its crude oil from the Middle East.

Much uncertainty remains about the level of future FSU crude oil production. Any major FSU crude oil production loss will be compensated by higher production in the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and the Far East. A big worldwide market exists for the FSU petroleum; however, many non-geological factors will determine whether the FSU will play a major role as an oil exporter in the future.

Das, S. 1994. Democratization and world petroleum trade in the year 2000. Energy--The International Journal 19(7):783-93.

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Integrated Assessment Briefs. 1995. ORNL/M-4227. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN.