This is a brief description of studies that exemplify the methods and approaches that have been developed and used by Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) researchers in conducting integrated assessments. See the complete list of Integrated Assessment Briefs to find out more about ORNL's efforts in integrated assessment. Contact Mike Farrell (farrellmp@ornl.gov) for more information.

Actual vs Predicted Effects of Fuel Ethanol Projects


Process flow diagram for a fuel ethanol plant using a molasses feedstock. All flows are in kilograms per hour.

How well do integrated environmental assessments identify and evaluate the effects of proposed projects on the human environment?

Few follow-up studies have been conducted on National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) assessments to determine if predictions of impacts and effectiveness of mitigation were adequate. Oak Ridge National Laboratory researchers conducted a retrospective examination of the predicted and actual environmental effects of three ethanol fuel projects for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE).

Using reviews and analyses of existing data, interviews with project and government personnel, and inspections of completed projects and their environs, the study largely found that impact analyses adequately addressed the issues of importance.

A few adverse effects, however, were either not identified at all (e.g., odor problems) or were not accurately assessed (e.g., adverse effects of wastewaters on a municipal treatment plant). Generally, these deficiencies can be attributed to (1) significant differences between project design and the project as constructed; (2) inaccurate source terms; (3) failure to implement planned mitigation; and (4) unexpected external environmental changes independent of the project.

Eddlemon, G. K., J. W. Webb, D. B. Hunsaker, Jr., and R. L. Miller. 1993. Actual versus predicted impacts of three ethanol plants on aquatic and terrestrial resources. In Current and Future Priorities for Environmental Management. Proceedings of the National Association of Environmental Professionals 18th Annual Conference, Raleigh, N.C., May 24-26, 1993.

Hunsaker, D. B. Jr., G. K. Eddlemon, R. L. Miller, J. W. Webb. 1989. A NEPA follow-up study of DOE loan guarantee fuel ethanol plants. ORNL/CF-89/81. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tenn.


Where To?

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Integrated Assessment Briefs. 1995. ORNL/M-4227. Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN.